The travesties in Iraq, too many to enumerate entirely, can cause frustration to a point where leading decision-makers overlook the plight of minorities in that land. This report will seek to give decision-makers critical insight necessary to accepting that Iraq risks losing its ethnic and religious pluralism and becoming a far more radical society than it is today as a result. Assyrian/Chaldean/Syriacs, (hereafter ChaldoAssyrian) all one ethnic group, all Christian, have lost approximately 20-25 percent of their population since the fall of Saddam. Their future now hangs in a precarious balance; if more flee it will tip the population outwards emptying Iraq of any meaningful indigenous ChaldoAssyrian population.

Regional precedents for the implications of such an event are as close as Iraq’s neighbor, Iran. That country lost its indigenous ChaldoAssyrian population from the 1970s onwards; which has a positive correlation to the radicalization of its government.

Historical debate aside, common sense and basic democracy-building tenets tell us that ensuring minority rights can be a powerful, if not essential tool, for leveraging democracy; particularly in a country such as Iraq. The rapid decline of this population, if left unchecked, will quickly become formally recognized as ethnic cleansing by the international community (it already is, however). While this might draw greater attention to the problem, it will be too late at that stage.

It is also critical to remember that ChaldoAssyrians, and other minorities had previous atrocities or phases of targeted persecution which fueled prior refugee outflows. These people fleeing now, whether becoming internally displaced persons (IDPs) or refugees, represent that segment of the population which endured brute oppression, wars and sanctions and persevered. Their flight today is evidence of the extraordinary pressure they face, over and above the hardships faced by fellow Iraqis. Theirs is a unique crisis, a burden they carry alone, as an ethno-religious minority, as the indigenous people of Iraq.

ChaldoAssyrian numbers in Iraq still significantly outweigh the numbers as refugees in surrounding countries. This balance is precarious and could tip into a full scale exodus if policy interventions are not immediately implemented. Prioritizing ‘prevention’ is therefore the principle recommendation of this report. That is, prioritizing those policies that would help maintain this population in Iraq either in the major cities or their locations of choice as IDPs, must be the primary focus of the US and other partners.

What is needed is the political will in the US and on the part of other stakeholders to say that the liberation of Iraq is potentially resulting in the terminal end of its indigenous ChaldoAssyrian Christian population. The US could be unwittingly overseeing an agenda that no previous Islamic or secular dictatorship could fulfill. Once acceptance of the problem is established the solutions can be identified and implemented.

It is impracticable to explore the full scope of human rights violations and climate of fear and persecution in which these minorities exist. Instead, a simple articulation of key patterns and the findings reported in the Department of State’s International Religious Freedoms Report for 2006 will suffice (given that information is not included in such a report lightly):

The Department of State, while drawing attention to serious concerns in northern Iraq and the KRG-controlled areas, accurately notes that a number of ChaldoAssyrians first opt to head north when fleeing the major cities. This is a reflection of the reality that the vast majority of ChaldoAssyrian Christians originate from the north, particularly the Nineveh Plain, as part of their ancestral land. It is a territorial testament to their indigenous status.

The Nineveh Center for Research and Development, a local NGO and think tank located in the Nineveh Plain used ration card registries and petrol station gas ration registries to enumerate the number of IDP families that arrived between January 1, 2006 and the end of September 2006 (a period of roughly 9 months). They tabulated an influx of 3859 families – that were registered (this does not include a large number of families that do not register out of fear).

The Nineveh Plain, comprising the fertile lands laying north, east and south-east of Mosul, is singularly the largest destination point for Christian IDPs. While exact numbers are difficult to provide, even the refugees interviewed tell of their effort to head there first, and also to Dohuk and Irbil governorates. ISDP in early 2005 published its first needs assessment of the Nineveh Plain. At that time, approximately $236 million was estimated for the development needs of the region.

The Nineveh Plain was neglected by Saddam due to the lack of support from the minorities living there. The economic hardships from Saddam’s wars further ensured the lack of development there. Since the fall of Saddam, neither Arab or Kurdish authorities have been committed to ensuring equitable development and redress for the Nineveh Plain. It is unable to viably support its population base before the IDP influx. Now, with thousands of families arriving there, it is completely destitute.

The highest priority in northern Iraq with respect to the refugee crisis is getting relief to IDPs in the Nineveh Plain. Every interviewee indicated forcefully that the lack of securing their basic needs (a home, access to food, potable water, education and health care) necessitated either leaving the Nineveh Plain, using it as a leaping point to become a refugee; or removed it as an option. Numerous interviewees, when asked about the Nineveh Plain, indicated their awareness from Baghdad of that option but were already receiving word from others who fled there, that it could not absorb more people.

In effect, targeted aid to the Nineveh Plain can serve not only as an essential, long overdue humanitarian response, but also a means of preventing more IDPs from becoming refugees. Indeed, given the scope of the refugee crisis outlined at UNHCR’s recent international conference in Geneva, it is all the more vital to seek means of prevention; keeping further IDP’s from having to make that massive leap of abandoning their homeland and becoming an even more costly burden to the United States, Iraq’s neighbors and the wider international community.

Aid must take the form of immediate humanitarian relief first. This also requires reconstruction and development programs aiming to develop sustainable communities. Non-food item relief along with essential staple foods to meet nutritional requirements will ensure that IDPs can absorb the absence of employment opportunities, until programs aimed at building roads, providing electrical power, and essential services (health and education) can begin rolling-out.

The inability of the Nineveh Plain to begin unlocking its economic potential lies mainly in the lack of infrastructure (roads and electricity) to meet the needs of its agricultural sector. The Nineveh Plain was the breadbasket of the ancient Assyrian empire from which these people originate. Today, it remains extraordinarily fertile and the agricultural sector the single greatest source of potential revenue and job creation. While IDP populations begin receiving the vital aid they need in the short term, medium term reconstruction and development policies can ensure that moderate growth in the local economy will secure their decision to remain.

Of particular concern is education. Clearly the need for primary and secondary education is unavoidable as the IDP population grows in the area. It is also clear, however, that the medium term must provide opportunities for a tertiary education. In early 2005 a base of 2100 students existed. This figure is substantially higher given the IDP influx over the ensuing two years (though no exact number exists).

Many IDPs, having fled Mosul itself, cannot foresee allowing their children to attend the University of Mosul. As a result, laying the groundwork for the development of a new university and technical college in the Nineveh Plain will provide vital hope and confirm the feasibility of remaining in the Nineveh Plain on the part of IDPs. ChaldoAssyrians are disproportionately represented as part of Iraq’s human capital base (being skilled professionals in an array of fields). Indeed, the irony is that their focus on higher education, and support for liberation, makes them natural candidates for work with the US in Iraq – further singling them out for targeting by Islamists and insurgents.

Details for a project to develop a university and technical college can be found in Appendix One of the Nineveh Plain Needs Assessment at: http://aas.net/media/pos-pap/nna.pdf.

Decision-makers must take into account that the vast majority of IDPs in the Nineveh Plain and surrounding areas are actually themselves returnees, their parents or grand-parents being victims of Arabization programs driving them out of the area.

US decision-makers have a chance to ensure that pluralism remains alive and well in Iraq through the critical intervention to aid ChaldoAssyrian Christian IDPs in the Nineveh Plain at this point in time. While massive policy challenges confront the US throughout Iraq regarding efforts that will take years to bear fruit (if they succeed), these cannot allow us to ignore modest policies that can be implemented today and which can make a major difference overnight.

ISDP, and its civil society and NGO partners in Iraq, remain committed to ensuring that the US Government and its elected representatives are equipped with the best knowledge of vital solutions to critical problems. It is in this spirit we submit this short report and offer our services to any offices seeking clarity on the issues raised above.